The Latest on EB-5 Wait Times and Visa Bulletin Projections

By AILA’s EB-5 Committee1May 7, 2019

On May 6, 2019, Mr. Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Control and Reporting Division, provided incredibly important updates relating to EB-5 visa demand that are invaluable for attorneys advising both current and prospective investors. His panel was provided as part of the Invest in the USA (IIUSA) 2019 EB-5 Advocacy Conference and Industry Awards, held in Washington, D.C. on May 6. Although he addressed a multitude of topics, Charlie’s keynote presentation focused on two vital points of interest for advising your clients: present projected wait times and visa bulletin predictions.

Estimated Future Wait Times

EB-5 visa demand is largely captured by investors who are natives of P.R. China, Vietnam, and India. Based on general demand trends, Charlie was able to provide the following “worst case scenario” wait time projections for investors, if filing a new Form I-526 on May 6, 2019:

Country of Chargeability	Estimated Wait Time (based on a May 6, 2019 priority date)
P.R. China	16.5 years
India	8.4 Years
Vietnam	7.6 years
South Korea	2.4 years (largely within published processing times)
Rep. of China (Taiwan)	2 years (largely within published processing times)
Brazil	1.6 years (largely within published processing times)
Rest of World	No foreseeable quota backlog

Please note that these estimates do not apply to EB-5 applicants whose I-526 petition was filed before May 6, 2019.

Per the INA, EB-5 visa classification has an annual limit of approximately 10,000 (which can vary slightly from year to year), with no more than 7% going to any one country of chargeability. This quota of course includes not only investors but also their spouses and unmarried minor children.

1 Special thanks to AILA EB-5 Committee members Matthew Galati and Jennifer Hermansky for their contributions to this practice pointer.

Charlie’s methodology includes adding the number of current IV applicants with the number of pending Form I-526 petitions with USCIS for each country. These numbers can vary greatly due to historical differences in family sizes:

Country of Chargeability	Percentage of Visas going to investors / (dependents)
P.R. China	36% / (64%)
India	41% / (59%)
Vietnam	26% / (74%)
South Korea	35% / (65%)
Rep. of China (Taiwan)	36% / (64%)
Brazil	32% / (68%)

Please note that these estimates are “rough” and that any methodology to estimate future wait times / visa backlogs is necessarily limited as it cannot encompass all variables. Family sizes, for example, may vary over time and individual family demand may change due to births, marriages, deaths, divorces, and withdrawals. Moreover, Charlie’s methodology assumes a 100% approval rate, which is extremely unlikely. These estimates do, however, offer a glimpse into how visa demand versus the annual per-country limit impact visa availability.

Visa Bulletin Predictions

Charlie offered the following predictions as to what to expect for the remainder of FY 2019 and into FY 2020:

P.R. China: The July Visa Bulletin is expected to advance to October 1, 2014 for Mainland China. Charlie predicts that this date will likely not advance for the rest of the year unless the Rest of the World demand goes down significantly. In October (i.e., the start of FY 2020), China’s “best-case” scenario would be an October 15, 2014 final action date and its “worst-case” scenario would be an October 8, 2014 final action date.
Vietnam: The July Visa Bulletin is expected to advance to October 1, 2016 for Vietnam. Vietnam will hit its annual limit thereafter, upon which it will revert to China’s date. In October, Vietnam’s best-case scenario will be a December 15, 2016 final action date and its worst-case scenario would be a November 22, 2016 final action date.
India: Contrary to some back-and-forth on this issue, it is predicted that India will likely hit its annual limit in late June or early July. It is possible that the July Visa Bulletin could have a final action date in 2017, but Charlie could establish a cutoff equal to China’s final action date. In October 2019, India will face a 2017 final action date with Fall 2017 being the best-case scenario and summer 2017 being the worst-case scenario.
South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil are predicted to not backlog in FY 2019. They are predicted to be current in October.